Today's crude oil analysis
According to the latest OPEC monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, monthly OPEC crude oil production fell by 204,000 barrels/day to 960,000 barrels/day, the lowest level in a year, as Venezuelan crude oil production continued to decline, a dToday's crude oil analysisecrease of 50,000 barrels/day from February . Saudi Arabia also further cut 690,000 barrels per day based on February, while production in Angola and Libya also fell sharply. However, monthly production in the UAE increased by 490,000 barrels per day from the previous month. On the demand side, OPEC raised the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 208 by 10,000 barrels per day to 60,000 barrels per day. OPEC said that global crude oil demand in 208 has now reached 98.7 million barrels per day. By the fourth quarter, we are expected to see crude oil demand surpassing the historic mark of 100 million barrels per day. In addition, OECD crude oil inventories are also continuing to decline, and are currently 4 million barrels short of the 5-year average target.
However, an oil industry source who did not want to be named revealed that Italy is still importing Iranian crude oil; in addition to Italy, Turkey, India and many Middle Eastern countries are still importing Iranian crude oil. Commerzbank analyst Eugene Weinberg believes that the decline in Iranian crude oil exports is one of the main reasons why oil prices have risen above US$80 per barrel, but the resumption of sanctions on Iran by the United States on the 4th has no negative impact on the crude oil market. Because the crude oil market is adequately supplied, supply and demand are balanced.
According to foreign media reports, in addition to trying to exert international influence and restart sanctions on Iran, the United States has also launched an online campaign to distort Iran’s leadership. On the U.S. government website ShareAmerica, the Iranian government was presented in a bad image.
For Iraq, the biggest concern is weak infrastructure. Although the increase in oil production and prices has enabled Iraq to effectively accumulate oil wealth, the destruction of its public facilities by the war and years of low oil prices have made Iraq's electricity supply very unstable. This is also the biggest obstacle to further increases in Iraq's oil production in the future.
Analysts said that if Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear agreement this week, oil prices may soar, which is driven by geopolitical risks and uncertainties. But as traders digest the terms of exports and the rate of decline in Iranian oil exports, oil prices may fall again. He also pointed out that traders have recently set a record for the number of bullish bets that oil prices will continue to rise. This makes the market vulnerable to sharp sell-offs, which drives down oil prices.
The price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran may effectively end OPEC. IToday's crude oil analysisran has expressed its strong opposition to Saudi Oil Minister Falih’s redistribution of member quota production. Iranian Oil Minister Zangane said that this would threaten its market share.
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, US President Trump plans to ban many companies from investing in US technology and prevent the export of more technology. These two measures will be announced this weekend, aimed at countering manufacturing 2025. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Treasury Department is drafting regulations to prohibit companies with more than 25% shareholding from acquiring U.S. companies involving major industrial technologies. The intensification of Sino-US trade disputes has put pressure on risky assets such as crude oil.