Global crude oil prices

Since oil prices hit $7 a barrel, the speculative crude oil net long positionGlobal crude oil prices has been declining, and there is a saying in the population, "I hope nothing goes wrong," analysts said in the report. From the perspective of risk management, such an idea is dangerous.

Courvalin and others wrote in the report that after more than a year of production cuts to clear the global surplus, the plans to resume production in Saudi Arabia and Russia now show that the current supply is tight, which is not a bearish trend. The bank said that even if the output of these countries increased by 0 million barrels per day, it would only offset the involuntary output reduction.

It is reported that Saudi Arabia believes that the oil price of US$75 per barrel is fair for producers and consumers, while Russian President Putin believes that US$60 is acceptable. In fact, major crude oil importing countries hope that oil prices will fall significantly. As oil prices once exceeded 80 US dollars, this made India and other big crude oil importers quite frustrated.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the average daily oil production in the United States will reach 2 million barrels in 209, an increase of 90,000 barrels per day from the same period last year. It is estimated that the average daily oil production of the United States in 209 and 2020 will reach 2.4 million barrels and 200,000 barrels respectively.

According to observations from S&P Platts Energy Information Platts, domestic independent refineries are also subject to the new regulations on refined oil consumption tax that will take effect on the day of the month. Exports of refined oil products in April increased 46% year-on-year to 520,000 tons, but were lower than the monthly record high of 6.69 million tons, which was down more than /4 month-on-month.

On the other hand, Iran in the Middle East encountered the crisis of the US unilateral withdrawal agreement. The US threatened to impose the most severe economic sanctions on it. Although the European Union continuedGlobal crude oil prices to purchase Iranian oil in euros and was free from sanctions for European companies, The largest buyers of Iranian oil, some Asian countries, such as India, are bound to reduce their dependence on oil imports due to concerns about the US imposing oil tariffs and pricing methods.

Because OPEC's production cuts have caused large fluctuations in international oil prices, in order to prevent a sharp drop in oil prices, a large amount of oil is being imported as a reserve. In 0 months, crude oil inventories increased by 29.09 million barrels, and inventories increased by 47% compared to September.

Goldman Sachs' macro team remains optimistic about the medium and long-term prospects. They believe that easing production restrictions may make oil prices peak in the short-term, but strong fundamentals will still support prices in the medium and long term. Therefore, they maintain their expectation that the average crude oil price will rise to $85 in the third quarter.